ANALISIS PERAMALAN JUMLAH KENDARAAN UJI BERKALA DI PENGUJIAN KENDARAAN BERMOTOR DINAS PERHUBUNGAN KOTA SURAKARTA

Uncertainty about the number of vehicles that carry out periodic tests at the
Surakarta Transportation Service Office Motorized Vehicle Testing often causes
queues. Moreover, to provide excellent service to the public, it is necessary to
forecast the number of vehicles that carry out periodic tests. Through forecasting
testing of Motorized Vehicles, the Surakarta Transportation Service can prepare
tester and administrative resource requirements. Moreover, the operational and
maintenance needs of testing equipment can be carried out properly. This study
aims to determine the number of vehicles that carry out periodic tests with the
smallest forecasting error value. Thus, Testing of Motorized Vehicles of the
Surakarta Transportation Service can prepare the needs of human resources and
infrastructure.
Forecasting is done using the Single Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average,
and Exponential Smoothing methods. Forecasting calculations will be done with
the help of the POM-QM application for Windows 5. The most appropriate
forecasting method with the smallest forecasting error value is the Single Moving
Average method with 1,671 vehicles conducting periodic tests. Forecasting error
values sequentially are MAD 177,746, MSE 49,887.25, and MSE 9.56%.
Forecasting results are proved to be valid with a tracking signal value of -2.232.
Hopefully, Motorized Vehicle Testing at the Surakarta Transportation Service can
apply forecasting methods to prepare for human resource needs, operational needs,
and maintenance of test equipment.
Keywords: single moving average, weighted moving average, exponential
smoothing, forecast error, tracking signal