ANALISIS PERAMALAN (FORECASTING) PENJUALAN PRODUK AIR MINUM DALAM KEMASAN GELAS 220 ML PADA PT X BALI

Water is a very important need to fulfil daily needs, such as consumption or used as a main component in the production of food and beverages. Human needs for water, especially drinking water, are currently increasing. PT X Bali is a company engaged in the processing of Bottled Drinking Water (AMDK). The company often experiences fluctuations in the number of sales of 220 ml glass bottled water every month which causes the company to have difficulty in predicting future sales conditions. This study aims to forecast the sales of bottled drinking water products in 220 ml glasses for the following one-year period. The methods used are the linear trend method and the quadratic trend method for forecasting calculations. Furthermore, the two methods are compared by looking at the smallest error value obtained from the calculation of forecasting accuracy measures using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squere Error (MSE) and Mean Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of this study obtained that the linear trend method is the most effective method because it has a smaller error value compared to the forecasting accuracy value of the quadratic trend method. The error value of the linear trend method using MAD is 1,668.05 and MAPE is 13.0958%. Based on the calculation of the linear trend method, positive trend forecasting results are obtained, indicating an increase in sales in each month throughout 2024.
Keywords: Bottled Drinking Water, Sales, Linear Trend, Quadratic Trend.