ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN MODEL REGRESI TIME SERIES DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DALAM MEMPREDIKSI KEMAMPUAN PEMASOK KOMODITAS TELUR DI LUAR KOTA PALEMBANG

Egg commodity consumption in Palembang City fluctuates from time to time. This results in inflation and deflation of egg commodities in Palembang City. This requires an appropriate procurement concept to meet egg commodities in Palembang City, one of which is related to the ability of egg commodity suppliers from outside Palembang City. The purpose of this study was to find out information related to the origin of egg commodity suppliers from outside Palembang City and to compare the level of forecasting accuracy of commodity procurement using the time series regression and exponential smoothing methods. The method used is the data centering technique to determine the percentage of supplier origins that send the highest number of egg commodities to Palembang City. Then, the forecasting method used for prediction in this case is the time series regression and exponential smoothing methods to see the level of accuracy of each forecasting method. Based on the results of the study, it was found that the origin of the supplier who supplied the highest eggs from January to March came from Banyuasin Regency. Then, the best forecasting results were using the time series regression method with forecasting results in the 4th week of March being 20,896.42 kg. This time series regression method has a MAPE value of 14.48%, an RMSE value of 5706.71, and a MAD value of 4307.73.

Keywords : Inflation and Deflation, Egg Commodities, Forecasting, Time Series Regression, Exponential Smoothing.