PREDIKSI PERMINTAAN PENGIRIMAN BARANG DI BANDAR UDARA INTERNASIONAL AHMAD YANI SEMARANG MELALUI PERUSAHAAN ANGKASA PURA LOGISTIK SEMARANG

The unstable demand for goods affects the delivery of goods, especially in
air transportation. The instability of the demand for goods is a particular concern
for companies providing cargo delivery services. PT. Angkasa Pura Logistik
Semarang, through the Air Freight Expedition, provides air cargo delivery services
and must be vigilant regarding the uncertainty of goods delivery that occurs. The
uncertainty in goods delivery can lead to unpreparedness in dealing with incidents
in terms of human resources, storage space, procurement of equipment, as well as
office stationery, which will have an impact on the company's losses. This research
aims to determine the outgoing goods demand that will occur in the next period
using forecasting methods.
Accurate forecasting is done by comparing the Single Moving Average and
Single Exponential Smoothing methods using the assistance of Minitab 21
application. The most appropriate forecasting method is the Single Exponential
Smoothing method because it has the smallest error, with the forecasted outgoing
cargo shipment for Ekspedisi Muatan Pesawat Udara Angkasa Pura Logistik
Semarang being 24,457.3 kg in the next period, with a Mean Absolute Deviation
(MAD) of 13,292.024, Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 383,702.349, and Mean
Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 44.13%.
Keywords: forecasting error, forecasting, demand for goods, single exponential
smoothing, single moving average.