ANALISIS PERAMALAN KENDARAAN ANGKUTAN BARANG YANG MELAKUKAN PENIMBANGAN DI UPPKB WATUDODOL

Transportation also has a very close relationship with logistics activities. Every year there is always an increase in logistics activities. The high number of goods transport vehicles carrying out weighing at UPPKB Watudodol often causes several problems such as traffic jams. Apart from that, the speed of damage to roads also increases. This is mainly caused by goods transport vehicles that are Over Dimension Over Loading (ODOL) so that the country experiences quite large losses. To overcome this, forecasting is carried out to estimate the number of vehicles that will be weighed in May 2024. The methods used are the Single Moving Average, Wieghted Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing methods. The result of this calculation is that the Single Moving Average method obtained a result of 4,077 with an error value of MAD 866.48, MSE 1,037,091.58, and MAPE 17.26%. The Weighted Moving Average method obtained results of 4,225 with an error value of MAD 540.15, MSE 465,708.57, and MAPE 10.81%. The Exponential Smoothing method obtained results of 4,792 with an error value of MAD 757.32, MSE 953,658.83, and MAPE 14.35%. The tracking signal values ​​from the Single Moving Average, Wieghted Moving Average, and Exponential Smoothing methods are -2.76, -3.08, and 14.04 respectively. Then, if a comparison is made, it can be concluded that the Weighted Moving Average method is the most suitable method to use because it has the smallest error value compared to the other two methods.
Keywords: Forecasting, Weigh Bridge, Single Moving Average, Wieghted Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing