PREDIKSI WAKTU SANDAR KAPAL SEBAGAI EVALUASI WAKTU OPERASIONAL KAPAL JUKUNG DI DERMAGA 16 ILIR PALEMBANG

16 Ilir Quayside Palembang is an infrastructure facility that serves the docking of traditional boats names jukung which is along with their operations in Palembang. However, it is unfortunate that there is still no docking schedule in it. Therefore, it is necessary to forecast the docking duration of these jukung boats in 1 April 2024 period and determine the most appropriate method for this research. The objective of this forecasting is to determine the duration of dwelling time in the upcoming period. The results of this calculation can be used as a basis for evaluation and decision making regarding dwelling time for all relevant parties.
This research discusses the prediction of dwelling time at 16 Ilir Quayside using the exponential smoothing and moving average methods, utilizing historical data of the operational times of jukung boats docking in March 2024. From both methods, it was found that the exponential smoothing method is the most accurate method in this research as it has a minimal forecast error. The result obtained in 1 April 2024, it is predicted that 16 Ilir Quayside will serve the berthing of jukung boats for 481 minutes in one days. The forecast error in order are MAD 65.99; MSE 7511.26; and MAPE is 13.17%. The forecasting results are considered valid with a tracking signal value of 13.75.

Keyword: Jukung Docks, Quayside, Forecasting, Dwelling Time